Forum:2016 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start Last year's EPAC season was incredible, and I doubt 2016 will be anything close due to the dissipation of El Niño. However, I'm still excited to see another EPAC season, and I'm hoping for some interesting storms, as even in 2010 there were some surprises (Celia and Omeka). Plus this year may be more active then expected if it's true that the EPAC is becoming more active again as it does every 20 years or so. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:32, December 29, 2015 (UTC) I think the 2016 Pacific hurricane season will likely be slightly below normal due to the possibility of a La Nina event, which usually inhibits Pacific tropical cyclone development due to cooler waters and more wind shear. If we are in a warm PDO/cold AMO as some are saying, 2016 will likely be close to normal in the Pacific. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 00:51, December 30, 2015 (UTC) October 98E.INVEST AOI: SSW of Baja At 20/70 right now, and is likely to become Seymour. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:40, October 8, 2016 (UTC) As if we need to see any more. ^-^ This E. Pac Season has been spectacular. elawson7 23:12, October 8, 2016 (UTC) 30/70. Should be invested soon. Eric 02:40, October 9, 2016 (UTC) Whether this will be Seymour or Tina, this (and the other invest) are forecast to move westward. I think we'll see two fishspinners from these two AOIs. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:31, October 9, 2016 (UTC) Probably. Chances have been revised to 20/70. Eric 11:26, October 9, 2016 (UTC) :10/70. This may take its time, making it more likely to become Tina. Eric 21:13, October 9, 2016 (UTC) :Back to 20/70. The race for the name Seymour is on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:24, October 10, 2016 (UTC) ::30/70. This race should be fun. Eric 12:58, October 10, 2016 (UTC) 98E.INVEST Invested. Eric 13:11, October 10, 2016 (UTC) Down to 30/50. Eric 00:29, October 11, 2016 (UTC) 30/30. This is going to have to do something fast if it even wants a chance to become a TD. Cooler waters lie ahead. Eric 20:53, October 11, 2016 (UTC) 10/10. Development is no longer expected. Eric 23:42, October 12, 2016 (UTC) Vanished. Oh well. Eric 17:52, October 13, 2016 (UTC) 99E.INVEST AOI: W of Costa Rica 10/70. Here comes Tina. After a brief pause, it appears that the E. Pac is back into action. elawson7 23:57, October 8, 2016 (UTC) :20/70. Looks like this AOI and the one above will compete for the name Seymour. The loser takes the name Tina. Eric 11:28, October 9, 2016 (UTC) ::20/80...Eric 12:59, October 10, 2016 (UTC) 99E.INVEST Also invested. But now down to 10/60. Eric 00:26, October 11, 2016 (UTC) 20/60. Eric 20:51, October 11, 2016 (UTC) 20/40... :/ Eric 23:41, October 12, 2016 (UTC) : Haven't paid much attention here lately since the Atlantic has been stealing all the notable storms lately, but if this becomes Seymour, it probably won't do much other than kick up some waves near Mexico. Ryan1000 00:06, October 13, 2016 (UTC) :: I was expecting Seymour and Tina, but it looks like even Seymour is a long shot. Well, this Eastern Pacific season really has been incredible, and if it fails to produce another storm, I'll be okay with that. Eric 17:54, October 13, 2016 (UTC) AOI: S of Hawaii CPHC gives this a 20% chance, but it seems unlikely that Walaka will come from this. I do like that name, though. Eric 15:18, October 9, 2016 (UTC) 50%. May have Walaka after all. Eric 19:04, October 14, 2016 (UTC) AOI: SE of Hawaii CPHC gives this just a 10% chance. For now, it seems that this AOI and the one above may just produce some sporadic thunderstorm activity and then vanish out in a few days. Eric 00:34, October 11, 2016 (UTC) Retirements at a glance We've had one in the Atlantic for a while now, but since the EPac has 10 storms (11 counting Pali), we can start this here too. Here's my calls: Ryan1000's retirement predictions EPac: *Agatha - 0% - Second-latest start for the EPac proper, but still failed. *Blas - 0% - A strong hurricane, but was a fishspinner regardless. *Celia - 0% - Weaker than Blas, and also a fish. *Darby - 5% - It wasn't a fail since it did make landfall on Hawaii as a tropical storm, which isn't very common and is unique for July, but if Iselle of 2014 didn't get retired, Darby probably won't be either. *Estelle - 0% - Almost became a hurricane (and could be upgraded in post-analysis), but otherwise meh. *Frank - 0% - Defied predictions and became a hurricane, but still didn't hit land. *Georgette 0% - Became a major briefly, but died faster than it strengthened and didn't hit land. *Howard - 0% - Moderate TS fishspinner. *Ivette - 0% - Howard 2.0. *Javier - 1% - Brought some minor impacts to southern Baja, but nothing severe. *Kay - 0% - Remained well away from land. *Lester - 0% - Still active, but missed Hawaii, so no. *Madeline - 1% - Brushed by Hawaii and brought minor impacts. *Newton - 12% - First hurricane to hit Cabo in 2 years, but it wasn't as powerful or damaging as Odile, and it's not as likely to be retired. *Orlene - 0% - Could've gotten stronger, but was a fishspinner nonetheless. *Paine - 0% - May have brought some extratropical floods to the southwest U.S, but those don't count towards retirement. CPac: *Pali - 0% - An extremely rare January hurricane, but remained far away from any land. There's my thoughts. Ryan1000 03:44, August 8, 2016 (UTC) TG's Retirements (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)(Category colors: TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)(Grading colors: A+++++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z) EPac: * Agatha: Grade: E''' Retirement: '''0% - Agatha was a fail, nonetheless. * Blas: Grade: A+ Retirement: 0% - Blas was a nice looking hurricane, but it didn't affect land. * Celia: Grade: B-''' Retirement: '''0% - Celia, like most of the others, was a fish. * Darby: Grade: A+ Retirement: 5% - Darby made landfall as a TS in Hawaii, bringing minimal impacts. Darby also refused to die. * Estelle: Grade: F''' Retirement: '''0% - Estelle was another fail. * Frank: Grade: C+ Retirement: 0% - Became a hurricane unexpectedly but regardless, Frank was a fish. * Georgette: Grade: A++ Retirement: 0% - Georgette was a very strong hurricane, but she was a fish. * Howard: Grade: F''' Retirement: '''0% - Howard only brought rain to Hawaii as a remnant low. * Ivette: Grade: Z''' Retirement: '''0% - Ivette was a fairly weak storm, and it was a failed storm. * Javier: Grade: D-''' Retirement: '''1% - Javier only brought rain showers to Baja California. * Kay: Grade: D''' Retirement: '''1% - Kay affected some small islands, that's it. * Lester: Grade: A''' Retirement: '''5% - Lester will probably be a fish, unless it hits Hawaii. * Madeline: Grade: A++ Retirement: 5% - A pretty threatening storm overall, but impacts will probably be minimal. * Newton: Grade: C+ Retirement: 15% - 8 fatalities isn't enough for Mexico to retire Newton. * Orlene: Grade: E''' Retirement: '''0% - Failed to become a major hurricane. TG 23:08, September 11, 2016 (UTC) CPac: * Pali: Grade: A+++++ Retirement: 0% - Very nice start to the season, however, it was a fish. TG 12:05, August 8, 2016 (UTC) Ibahan1829's List of Retirement Candidates East Pacific: #'Tropical Storm Agatha': 0%: You tried again, Agatha, you failed again, Agatha. #'Category 4 Blas': 0%: It sailed the ocean blue. That's it not even a landfall, nope. The only hurricanes I prefer are these ones like Blas. #'Category 2 Celia': 0 again%: Good Celia, you kinda copied what you did six years ago and not hit land, not cause a fatality. As a bonus, you became an awesome annular hurricane at one point. Good Celia. #'Category 3 Darby': 0.5%: You tried, Darby, you thought you could copy Iselle. Even Iselle was worse for the Big Island than Darby was. See you sometime in 2022, Darby. #'Tropical Storm Estelle': 0%: So close to that, that 75 mph status. #'Category 1 Frank,' ' Category 4 Georgette,' Tropical Storm Howard: all 0%: Frank equals weak hurricane that did nothing, reached it's 2010 counterpart in strength. Georgette equals surprising, C4 monster that also did nothing. Howard equals meh TS weaker than Estelle, and did nothing anywhere, like Pali, Agatha, Blas, Celia, Estelle, Frank and Georgette that came before this. #'Tropical Storm Ivette': No%: Wimpy Tropical Storm that had much potential to become a category one, or even a good ole' two like Celia. But NO, it became a scaredy cat and be even weaker than even Estelle and Howard. Agatha had it's reasons not to do anything, but Ivette just decided to be lazy, to not even try. I'm moving on. Next! #'Tropical Storm Javier': 0.0000000000001%: First storm this year to REALLY threaten land. It barely did anything to the land except for some rain. Javier will stay for 2022. #Tropical Storm Kay: 0%: Did nothing. #Category 4 Lester: 0%: Did nothing, except for some Hawaii rain, maybe. #Category 4 Madeline: 0.5%: It threatened Hawaii, it missed Hawaii. #Category ? Newton: This currently category 1 hurricane will hit Baja California soon... Central Pacific: #'Category 2 Pali': I don't even need a percentage to give to Pali. This storm is what you call an Enigma. CATEGORY 2 MERE MILES FROM THE EQUATOR IN JANUARY!? Crap, Pali! Pressure lower than 980 makes Pali the strongest January Central Pacific hurricane since the dawn of reliable records(yes, this includes EKEKA 92). And, best of all, it existed right along with ANOTHER huricane in the Atlantic. This is practically a once in a lifetime event here. We might never get to see an event like this again in our lifetimes...[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 12:52, August 9, 2016 (UTC) Steve's retirement predictions & storm grades: (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%) (Grading colors: A+++++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z) East Pacific: *One-E: Grade: F''' - It failed to even become a tropical storm. The only reason it doesn't get a Z is because it caused impacts. *Agatha: Grade: '''D+ Retirement: 0% - Gets a large amount of credit for forming rapidly and unexpectedly, and for finally breaking the huge quiet streak. It did the best it can against the unfavorable conditions it faced, but was still a weak TS. *Blas: Grade: A''' Retirement: '''0% - An amazing Category 4 fishspinner. *Celia: Grade: C+ Retirement: 0% - Failed to become a major and barely peaked as a C2. However, it tried. *Darby: Grade: A-''' Retirement: '''5% - Gets credit for being a major, lasting a while, and becoming one of few storms to strike Hawaii. There is a tiny chance of retirement, but I doubt that will happen. *Estelle: Grade: E''' Retirement: '''0% - Estelle disappointed me by not becoming a hurricane. It isn't a complete fail, since it did almost reach hurricane status. But since it failed to become one despite predictions for it to do so, it gets a bad grade. It will be upgraded to at least a D if upgraded to a hurricane post-analysis. *Frank: Grade: D+ Retirement: 0% - Impressed me by becoming a last-minute hurricane. It did not become one despite predictions for it to do so until the last minute, causing its grade to suffer a little. *Georgette: Grade: A''' Retirement: '''0% - Amazing storm that RI'd at the last minute, but it barely scraped C4 status. The fact that it RI'd quite unexpectedly raises its grade a lot. I like the effort that Georgette put in during its life. *Howard: Grade: E''' Retirement: '''0% - Nothing special. It struggled with westerly shear and upwelling but despite those factors, it managed 60 mph, preventing it from being a complete fail. *Ivette: Grade: F''' Retirement: '''0% - Wow, just wow. Despite continued forecasts for a potentially big hurricane (at least C2), it didn't even become one at all. It still reached 60 mph, preventing a "Z" classification. Did that shear monster attack you, Ivette the scaredy cat? Haha *Javier: Grade: E''' Retirement: '''1% - Caused some impacts in Mexico and Baja, but failed to become a hurricane. It reached 65 mph, which proves that it (somewhat) tried. *Kay: Grade: E''' Retirement: '''0% - Exceeded my expectation of being an epic name stealer. So it gets an E, instead of F or Z. No land effects means no retirement. *Lester: Grade: A+ Retirement: 0% - An awesome storm that exceeded my expectations by a bunch. It lasted a long time, further upping the grade. It passed north of Hawaii and spared them a direct hit. *Madeline: Grade: A+ Retirement: 0.01% - This REALLY exceeded my predictions! It was originally forecast to be a C1, but exploded to a C4! Nice stunt, girl. It spared Big Island from a direct hit, but it might have still caused plenty of minor impacts. *Newton: Grade: C''' Retirement: '15% '- A weak hurricane that almost became a Category 2 before punching Baja. It caused 8 fatalities and was the only storm of the season to cause fatalities AFAIK. This might have a slight shot of retirement, but that chance is still very low. *Orlene: Grade: 'C+ ' Retirement: '''0% - A strong 110 mph fishspinner, but too bad it didn't become a major. will be upgraded to a B if upgraded to a major post-analysis. *Paine: Grade: C''' Retirement: '''0.01% - Any damage in Baja or the southwest U.S. was minimal. This also brought clouds to where I live. *Roslyn: Grade: F''' Retirement: '''0% - Missed land, and was a failure. Would have gotten a Z had it not reached 50 mph. Central Pacific: *Pali: Grade: A++ Retirement: 0% - Damn, that was amazing. Extremely early storm and became a Category 2 as well, and it was very close to the equator. It could have gotten my highest grade possible if it became a major. No land effects, so no retirement. *Ulika: Grade: C+ '''Retirement: '''0% - No land effects. It was only a weak hurricane, but the fact that it crossed from the EPac to CPac and back raises its grade somewhat. ''St''''eve'' 19:44, August 9, 2016 (UTC) ---- KN2731's storm grades & retirements Grading from A to F, retirements in multiples of 5. Eastern Pacific # Agatha: grade E''', retirement '''0%. Span up quickly and helped to make things more favourable for Blas, but otherwise failed. # Blas: grade A''', retirement '''0%. Nice annular hurricane that didn't affect land. Thumbs up. # Celia: grade C''', retirement '''0%. Made it to C2, but was quite ragged the whole time. # Darby: grade B''', retirement '''5%. Steadfast major that lasted 2 full weeks to Hawaii. But if Iselle 2014 didn't go, you're not going either. # Estelle: grade F''', retirement '''0%. Nope, no post-analysis upgrade. Wasted both its chances. # Frank: grade C''', retirement '''0%. Nearly failed, but became a last-minute hurricane. # Georgette: grade A+, retirement 0%. Beautiful. Just the type of hurricane I like. Could have lasted longer though. # Howard: grade F''', retirement '''0%. Failed to become the 8th July storm, unless it was found to be one earlier in post-analysis. # Ivette: grade F''', retirement '''0%. You chose not to rapidly intensify? What a joke. # Javier: grade E''', retirement '''5%. First storm to pose a hurricane threat this year, but failed eventually. # Kay: grade D''', retirement '''0%. Did what it could against shear. # Lester: grade A''', retirement '''5%. Another beautiful annular hurricane that kept restrengthening against the odds. Brushed Hawaii, but overall impact was quite minor. # Madeline: grade A+, retirement 5%. Defied the normally unfavourable conditions near Hawaii to become a category 4. Hurricane warnings were up at a time, but turned away without bringing major impacts. # Newton: grade C''', retirement '''15%. 8 fatalities, but not worth retiring. # Orlene: grade C''', retirement '''0%. Will upgrade to B if we have a major in post-analysis. # Paine: grade B''', retirement '''0%. Became a 80-knot hurricane despite forecasts calling for it to be weak. # Roslyn: grade F''', retirement '''0%. Weak stuff that's not doing anything. Central Pacific # Pali: grade A++++++++++++++++, retirement 0%. No words to describe how amazing this storm is. Ultimately won't be retired though since Ekeka didn't go either. # Ulika: currently active, retirement 0%. May cross 140°W three times. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:27, September 27, 2016 (UTC) Raindrop's Retirements (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%) (Credit to Steve820) Eastern Pacific: *Agatha - 0% - It was a surprise that the system that became Agatha actually got named, but Agatha was short lived and weak, only a smidge above being a 40 mph storm. Agatha had no impacts either, so Agatha will stay. *Blas - 0% - Blas was a really nice major hurricane to track. It didn't last super long, more like average, but looked quite cool as an annular hurricane with it's large eye. Blas did not impact land either. *Celia - 0% - Celia was an interesting hurricane as it ended up developing a very large eye, much bigger then Blas's was. It's cool that it became a category 2 hurricane in Blas's wake as well. However, again, it just formed and dissipated along a straight track which gets a little repetitive. *Darby - 5% - Darby was an impressive and long lived storm that even managed to unexpectedly (but barely) become a major. Near the end of it's near 2-week lifespan it even managed to make landfall on Hawaii. Darby did cause some flooding, but it's unlikely to be retirement worthy. *Estelle - 0% - Estelle struggled despite somewhat favorable conditions and even though the NHC at first was predicting a category 2, Estelle couldn't even become a hurricane. Estelle did not affect land either. *Frank - 0% - Frank developed suddenly and advisories weren't even initiated by the NHC until it was already a TS, but then it struggled for a while, stalling in intensity as a 70 mph storm. However, just when it had weakened all the way to 50 mph and we all thought Frank was done, it made an amazing comeback and finally attained hurricane status, actually reaching an 85 mph intensity which is a step above a minimal hurricane, which was very impressive! Despite the earliest forecasts saying Frank could impact Baja California, Frank did not impact land in the end. *Georgette 0% - Georgette was an impressive storm, becoming a beautiful category 4 storm unexpectedly after a short stall in intensity. However, Georgette was short lived and actually weakened faster then it strengthened, never impacting land. *Howard - 0% - Howard spent most of it's short life as a sheared storm (a punishment for not getting named during July? :P), and was never able to strengthen much, then rapidly dissipated faster then forecast, which was lame. Howard had no land impacts. *Ivette - 0% - Read Howard. *Javier - 1% - Javier was a rather short lived tropical storm, however it posed a threat to land the entire time. At one point Javier looked somewhat well organized, and got somewhat close to becoming a hurricane, but when Javier neared land it got rapidly dissipated. Javier did cause minor flooding, but wasn't able to even make landfall. *Kay: 0% '- Kay was a moderate tropical storm that did not threaten land except for perhaps higher than normal surf, therefore it will not be retired. It tried somewhat and I think was a 60 mph storm at some point, unlike what the NHC said. *Lester: '''0% '- Lester was a long tracked and strong hurricane that in the end never really affected any land! Lester posed a small threat to Hawaii, but missed, and as a result it ended up being a strong fishspinner that refused to weaken for a while. Lester was a fun storm to track. *Madeline: '''0.01% ' '- Madeline was a strong hurricane but wasn't too long lived. It posed a threat to Hawaii, but shear destroyed Madeline and it missed as well. It scared people a little bit, so it gets a non-zero retirement chance because Hawaii did that once, but I doubt Hawaii would retire Madeline for scaring people, considering Iselle was not retired. Central Pacific *Pali - 0% - Pali was an insanely amazing storm that did not impact land! All the time we waited for Pali was worth it. Pali was amazingly long lived, even if it WASN'T January, and Pali spent it's entire life close to the equator. It was insane how Pali was a category 2 hurricane almost at the equator. It was a shame that Pali got dissipated by the close encounter with the equator though, we could have seen Pali become a typhoon if it had survived. Even with that, Pali was a one-of-a-kind storm that was an epic start to the season. Isaac's prediction Doing it in 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%. *Pali - 0% - Not close to any land mass. *Agatha - 0% - " " *Blas - 0% - " " *Celia - 0% - " " *Darby - 0% - Insignificant damage. *Estelle - 0% - " " *Frank - 0% - " " *Georgette - 0% - " " *Howard - 0% - " " *Ivette - 0% - " " *Javier - 0% - Insignificant damage. *Kay - 0% - " " *Lester - ? *Mandeline - ? --Isaac829 00:10, August 30, 2016 (UTC) roussil's predictions (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%) (Credit to Steve820) *Pali: 0% - meh *Agatha: 0% - meh *Blas: 0% - meh *Celia: 0% - meh *Darby: 15% - extra points for hawaii landfall *Estelle: 0% - meh you 70mph faillicia *Frank: 0% - meh *Georgette: 0% - meh *Howard: 0% - meh *Ivette: 0% - meh *Javier: 0% - meh *Kay: 0% - meh *Lester: 0% - meh *Madeline: 0% - meh *Newton: 5% - few deaths so... *Orlene: 0% - meh *Paine: 10% - could have gone with sometihng better than 10% *Roslyn: 0% - meh *Ulika: 0% - meh user | MonseurRoussil97 | user Eric's retirement chances *Pali - 0% - Similar to Alex in the Atlantic, a cool off-season hurricane that didn't affect land. *Agatha - 0% - I don't like this name, which sucks because she'll be back in 2022. *Blas - 0% - Category 4 hurricane with no impacts. Nice. *Celia - 0% - If you knew better, you would do better. *Darby - 5% - Minor damage to Hawaii. See ya in six years. *Estelle - 0% - HA. What a joke. *Frank - 0% - Thank you for becoming a hurricane, unlike your predecessor. *Georgette - 0% - See Blas. *Howard - 0% - And I thought Estelle was a fail. *Ivy - 0% - ^ *Javier - 5% - Minor damage won't take his name. *Kay - 0% - Don't even. *Lester - 0% - See Georgette. *Madeline - 5% - See Darby. *Newton - 10% - Some damage and nine deaths makes him the deadliest storm of the season thus far, but isn't enough for retirement. *Orlene - 0% - Why the f-ck didn't this become a major hurricane? *Paine - 0% - See Javier. *Roslyn - 0% - At least she tried. *Ulika - 0% - Fun to track. elawson7 18:25, October 8, 2016 (UTC) Post-season changes Well, TD One-E's TCR is out, so I'll add this here. Not much difference, if any. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:10, August 9, 2016 (UTC) :Estelle's is out, sadly no upgrade to hurricane status :/ --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 11:56, September 16, 2016 (UTC) ::Agatha's out. Winds were upped to 50 mph, but no change in pressure. TG 20:56, September 27, 2016 (UTC)